Same-Sex Marriage Becomes Universal: Just a Matter of Time?

Nate Silver is a smart cookie. He runs a great website – 538: Politics Done Right. What Nate does, among other things, is apply statistical methods of analysis (alongside a huge dose of common sense) to political issues and then presents great and easy-to-read posts.  

Nate’s been a big advocate of same-sex marriage for a while, and he did a great piece last week on same-sex marriage and its chances for becoming the law of the land in all of the 50 states. Nate used a simple regression analysis based on three variables:  

1. The year in which anti-same-sex marriage was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in a 2008 Gallup polls who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives (by state); and
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

Using these three variables, Nate has come out with a state-by-state prediction of when a state would legalize same-sex marriage. Interestingly, this points out that so many of the "straw man" arguments that were erroneously (and rather nefariously) made in the wake of Prop 8 (such as the argument that African American voters “cost” the LGBT community its right to marry) are B.S.

But even more interesting is this: What Nate’s analysis points out is that universal (or near universal) U.S. legalization of same-sex marriage is a matter of time. The reason is simple: There are massive, immutable trends at work in this country that are reducing the percent, per state, of white evangelicals as voters. Combine this with the ever-progressing and positive view that more and more Americans have, state by state, accepted the rights that the LGBT community is entitled to, and since younger people are replacing traditionally conservative older people in the population, we can see that same-sex marriage becomes practically inevitable. 

This does not mean that same-sex marriage is on autopilot. Expediting marriage acceptance for the LGBT community can, and should, be aided by efforts to educate younger people as to who we are and what we want -- that we are Americans, and we seek no more and no less than any other Americans.   

In other words, speeding up these inevitable trends is possible. But stopping them most certainly is not!

(Image courtesy of Getty)